Publication > Part III: Policies for the future > Scenarios
Communication technology (CT) enables specialist workers to co-operate in virtual teams. Consequently, firms employ specialists from all over the world.
Specialist workers gain from personal interaction with their fellow specialists. Together with an attractive living environment, this determines their choice to live in small specialised tows.
The strongly competitive environment enables high-skilled specialists to earn high incomes. However, the rising top performer of tomorrow can overtake the top performer of today. The wages of low-skilled workers suffer downward pressure due to global competition. The TT world faces the paradox of high demand for protection and redistribution, but limited supply.
The comparative advantage of the Netherlands and other European countries lies within business services. Manufacturing activities move for the most part to Asia.
In a CC city, many specialists from all over the world combine their efforts in innovation, design and production. This global division of tasks relies on efficient and relatively cheap communication technologies, which facilitate intensive coordination between all steps in the production process.
Cities develop into clusters of specialised activities. The largely science-driven expansion of bio- and nanotechnology demands close cooperation between researchers in universities and firms.
The prosperity of these cities might be threatened if other cities contest or take over their comparative advantage. Therefore, income levels may differ substantially between centres and between a particular centre and its hinterland. Substantial income inequality also exists within cities, because the large CCs attract a broad range of supporting tasks.
The Netherlands may host a few of these clusters in which it has a comparative advantage. Dutch CC cities may specialise in, for instance, company headquarters, water management and engineering, biomass technology, medical engineering, creative activities or logistics services.
Knowledge resides largely in the minds of the country's generalist employees in combination with the databases and other IT-applications of firms. The IT systems enable firms to produce differentiated products that cater to differences in local demand.
Living and working activities spread out over space. Because firms benefit little from being located near each other, they turn away from large cities and settle in medium-sized cities. These cities offer high-quality private and public services and provide agreeable living conditions for their employees.
EE represents a world with little income growth and modest income differentials. Because technological progress levels off and considerable wealth flows to suppliers of raw materials, disposable income grows only moderately.
Medium-sized cities the Netherlands flourish, building on their strengths in fields such as creative industries, agricultural services, healthcare products, fashion and design. Economic activity in the Randstad keeps pace, because the Netherlands retains its position in the transport of final goods all over Europe.
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In MM, bio- and nanotechnology break through. Their sheer complexity requires extensive research facilities and a high degree of tacit knowledge exchange within large firms to create sufficient potential for developing marketable applications.
Metropolises attract firms and people. In metropolises, firms find trusted business partners, knowledge centres, a large supply of generalist workers and many consumers. People move to a MM city to select the best job, to build interesting relationships and to benefit from an appealing supply of cultural and recreational services.
Where the metropolis thrives, the hinterland lags behind. The metropolis attracts all of the highly productive firms and higher-qualified people. Income inequality is large-both within the metropolis and between the metropolis and the hinterland.
The Netherlands faces the challenge whether it is large enough to host a local metropolis. Given the scale and scope of MM cities there is a chance that this is impossible. In that case, the Netherlands as a whole becomes a hinterland. Neighbouring European metropolises would attract all company headquarters, research centres and talented people.
Scenarios
Talent Towns (TT)
Imagine a world with relatively small cities (100,000 - 200,000 inhabitants) and specialised workers and firms. TT is a very dynamic world with excellent opportunities, but also major challenges.Cosmopolitan Centres
Envision a world of large cities (each of 2 to 8 million inhabitants) with global connections hosting specialised workers and firms.Egalitarian Ecologies
Variety and dispersion characterise egalitarian ecologies. Economic activity spreads out over medium-sized cities (100,000 - 500,000 inhabitants) that host medium-sized firms. Successful cities are hotbeds of high-quality production, and offer opportunities for creative cooperation on a small scale.<